UPDATE: Now that WrestleMania is wrapped for another year, take a look at our predictions below to see how well we did (spoiler - we got some right!)
‘Mania is nigh! Just a few sleeps away! Which has been REALLY weird to hear Michael Cole say. Out loud. “Sleeps.” Like, counting the sleeps until WrestleMania 40. Mostly because we all know he’s an undead entity who is denied a soul's true rest A full-fledged minion of the skeleton army destined to coat the Earth with the toxic miasma of the Ancient Ones.
JK! Cole is good now. We love Cole. Any and all “GDYC!” usage is meant lovingly. Much like whatever the plural is for Kurt Angle’s entrance theme “You Suck!” Maybe one day, one of these columns, or part of one, will be spent praising Cole for his tenure and legacy. You know, from the perspective of a former dark-hearted internet buffoon who somehow got Cole hate into the Urban Dictionary.
Anywuzzy, let’s run down the full ‘Mania card and chat about who we* want to win. I’m gonna give you the Opposite Momentum pick and then my own pick, which will be a chaotic blend of who I want to win and who I think will win.
For those in need of a refresher: The Opposite Momentum rule is one of wrestling’s long-standing (unofficial) edicts in which everyone involved has to pretend that “momentum” is a thing. Like, if a wrestler has a lot of wins ahead of a big PPV match then surely momentum is on their side and they’ll also win on the weekend. Or if someone attacks their opponent on the TV taping before the weekend match then they’ll have the upper hand and will definitely beat that same opponent again. The rule then is, basically… that person won’t win. In either case. Whoever has the momentum leading into the PPV will lose.
So the announcers will try to convince you the bad guy will surely fall because the babyface is on a roll. Or that the bad guy will win because they attacked the babyface just days out from the match. But the opposite will happen. This is not 100% accurate. Back when I ran the numbers -- in what I can only assume was a fantastically lazy and detail-deprived manner -- the success rate (of the favorite’s non-success) of the rule averaged out to about 85%. So let’s run this experiment once more, years later, and see where we land.
Keep in mind, too, some of these are "TBD" until Friday's SmackDown airs.
WrestleMania 40 Night 1, Saturday April 6
Rey Mysterio & Dragon Lee Andrade vs. Santos Escobar & Dominik Mysterio
We all love to hate Dominik, but should he lose a ‘Mania match to his dad again? I say NO. This far, no further. But there’s also a lot of Judgement Day/Legado Del Fantasma/Andrade drama that could also play a factor here, in either direction.
SmackDown Update: The whole match just shifted, as Andrade sided with the LWO (awww, and Zelina) and will fill in for Dragon Lee in the match. Thus, my pick has switched
Matt’s Pick: Rey Mysterio and Andrade
Opposite Momentum Pick: Rey Mysterio and Andrade (because Zelina lost her match)
Undisputed WWE Tag Team Championship Six-Pack Tag Team Ladder Match
The R-Truth-aissance should lead to a feel-good win for Miz and Truth here, but I’m also going with the other FGW with Triple H faves, DIY. Since both sets of belts are on the line, we’re leaving with two new sets of champs.
Matt’s Pick: The Awesome Truth *AND* DX... er, I mean DIY
Opposite Momentum Pick: Grayson Waller and Austin Theory lost on SmackDown so they've got a good shot at winning one set of those belts now. And Judgement Day beat everyone up so they'll still be losing the belts.
Jey Uso vs. Jimmy Uso
There’s no reason for the Yeet to get beat here. And Jimmy losing could add to the overall colony collapse of the Bloodline.
Matt’s Pick: Jey Uso
Opposite Momentum Pick: Jey got trounced on SmackDown by Jimmy and Solo (though ultimately saved by Cody and Seth), so he's got the OM pick here too.
Intercontinental Champion Gunther vs. Sami Zayn
While there’s still wiggle room here for coach Chad Gable to turn on Sami Zayn, all signs point to a big warm Sami win over record-breaking IC champ Gunther. Plus, Sami got floored by Gunther on RAW.
Matt’s Pick: Sami Zayn
Opposite Momentum Pick: Sami Zayn
Women's World Champion Rhea Ripley vs. Becky Lynch
This is a tough one, since RAW featured a pretty evenly-split brawl between the two women, with neither side claiming a clear advantage. And Liv Morgan could still play a factor for either side. I'm going with the easier pick here even though it's not the outcome I want.
Matt’s Pick: Becky Lynch
Opposite Momentum Pick: N/A (though if Becky’s winning this for her daughter then I suppose that counts)
The Rock & Roman Reigns vs. Cody Rhodes & Seth Rollins
Alright, I’m just going to play this whole Bloodline feud out straight. Trad storytelling. Good guys and bad guys. No backstabbing. The babyfaces took a brutal buttocks whooping two weeks in a row leading up to this big tag bout so they’re going over.
Of course, the one real thing pointing to a heel win here for the Rock and Roman is that if they don’t win then we don’t get a Bloodline Rules match on Night 2. Which would be a strange thing not to have.
Matt’s Pick: Cody Rhodes & Seth Rollins
Opposite Momentum Pick: Cody Rhodes & Seth Rollins - though, on the flip side, Seth and Cody got to obliterated Jimmy and Solo on SmackDown so we could still get the big heel win here.
WrestleMania 40 Night 2, Sunday April 7
Bobby Lashley & The Street Profits vs. Final Testament (Six-Man Tag Team Philadelphia Street Fight)
There aren’t many also-ran matches over these two nights, but this one feels sort of disposable. It’s actually a shame that these two stables had to face each other right away before they could both build up notoriety, but if I had to pick a favorite it’s gonna be Lashley’s crew. They formed first and they’ve never truly gotten off the blocks. This one could also be a secret show stealer, what with the Street Fight element and all.
Matt’s Pick: Bobby Lashley & The Street Profits
Opposite Momentum Pick: N/A, SmackDown video promos from both teams means no true OM pick.
LA Knight vs. AJ Styles
Fans wouldn’t let Cody fall by the wayside and very quickly willed him back into the ‘Mania main event in a major f***ing way. Which leaves us with the one remaining victim of the 'Mania Bloodline feud: LA Knight. Knight was never able to capitalize on his Third and Fourth Quarter popularity once the Road to WrestleMania kicked into high gear. Now he and AJ will have a match. But - hey! - at least Knight’s on the ‘Mania card. And - hey! - at least he’s gonna win.
Matt’s Pick: LA Knight
Opposite Momentum Pick: N/A, Knight cut a promo in the ring on SmackDown but that's it.
Bianca Belair, Jade Cargill & Naomi vs. Damage CTRL (Six-Woman Tag Team Match)
I love love love Damage CTRL but there’s no way in Sinbad’s seven voyages that Jade Cargill loses her WrestleMania match. Opposite Momentum seems to say so too.
Matt’s Pick: Bianca Belair, Jade Cargill & Naomi
Opposite Momentum Pick: Bianca Belair, Jade Cargill & Naomi
Logan Paul vs. Randy Orton vs. Kevin Owens (United States Title Triple Threat Match)
This for sure feels like Logan Paul’s match to win since Triple Threats favor the sneaky heel when the two babyfaces are on par with one another. Still, this one will be good for a Stunner and an RKO (or two).
SmackDown Update: Logan got double-finisher'd on TV so the OM results are in!
Matt’s Pick: Logan Paul
Opposite Momentum Pick: Logan Paul
WWE Women’s Champion IYO SKY vs. Bayley
I would be enraptured with a big Bayley win but I’m going to say Iyo here. Just to balance out the heel/babyface wins at ‘Mania. Again though, I’ll be delighted with either. Bayley deserves the big moment and it would be a shame to waste that Rumble win. So why am I such an a-hole about this pick? I have no idea.
Matt’s Pick: Iyo
Opposite Momentum Pick: N/A, just a SmackDown video recap of Bayley/Iyo feud so no true OM pick.
World Heavyweight Champion Seth “Freakin” Rollins vs. Drew McIntyre
Love it or loathe it, CM Punk did breathe new life into this bout, even though that also means it could work against Drew McIntyre in the end. Because up until last week, he seemed highly favored to walk out as champ. And he still COULD win, but I think the big factor here is Punk’s feud with BOTH guys and then the looming threat of Damien Priest.
It would be awesome to see (especially if the Judgement Night loses their previous three other ‘Mania matches) Priest do an ambush. OR he could even do what Rollins once did and just put himself into the match, making it a Triple Threat, right near the end.
Matt’s Pick: Drew McIntyre, though ultimately Damien Priest
Opposite Momentum Pick: TBD
Undisputed WWE Universal Champion Roman Reigns vs. Cody Rhodes
Okay, remember I’m playing this one straight. Though we thought it would play out normally last year too. And, in the end, isn’t a Rhodes being perpetually *this close* to winning the most Rhodes thing you can do?
But the era of “New Game Plus” Cody is now. He’s gonna finish the story and then continue to play. Will John Cena and Steve Austin help Cody out in the end, the way some online fans have theorized based on the placement of a big WWE truck with their faces on it during last week’s Cody beatdown? Seems like a stretch. Not a stretch that it will happen, just a stretch that that's what the truck meant.
I just need something to give here. I think the time for eleventh-hour swerves is over. Use that somewhere else on the ‘Mania card. Let Cody get it done and do the thing. Stop being silly.
Matt’s Pick: Cody Rhodes
Opposite Momentum Pick: Cody Rhodes
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